NOAA publishes free, high-accuracy temperature forecasts every hour. Polymarket weather contracts are priced by the crowd. When government data says one thing and the market says another, that's your edge. We find those gaps automatically.
Free government forecast data meets inefficient prediction markets. Here's how we turn that into an edge.
We pull real-time temperature forecasts from the National Weather Service API every hour. NOAA data is free, public, and highly accurate within 1-3 day windows.
We compare NOAA forecast probabilities to Polymarket temperature contract prices. When the forecast says 72% but the market says 15%, that's a 57-point edge.
Buy underpriced contracts before the market adjusts to the forecast. The sweet spot is 1-3 days before resolution when NOAA accuracy peaks and markets still lag.
Sorted by edge size. Green border = Strong confidence. Yellow = Moderate. Buy contracts where the forecast probability far exceeds the market-implied probability.
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Current NOAA forecasts and active Polymarket contract count for each tracked city.
Understanding the structural edge that makes weather arbitrage work.
| Timeframe | Accuracy | Typical Edge |
|---|---|---|
| 1-Day Out | ±2°F | 40-60% |
| 3-Day Out | ±4°F | 25-40% |
| 5-Day Out | ±5°F | 15-25% |
| 7-Day Out | ±6°F | 5-15% |
The sweet spot is 1-3 days before resolution. NOAA forecasts are most accurate at this range, and market prices often still reflect older, less precise forecasts.
Historical performance of our NOAA-vs-market signal strategy across different forecast timeframes.
| Timeframe | Trades | Win Rate | Avg Edge | Total Profit |
|---|
Based on historical NOAA forecast data vs Polymarket weather contract outcomes. Results include 2% platform fee deduction. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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